Machine Learning Fantasy Sports

Predicting Daytona 500 2018 Top Fantasy Drivers With Machine Learning

NASCAR Predicting top 2018 Daytona 500 fantasy drivers with Machine Learning.

We have completed our testing of machine learning models and have identified an algorithm that generalizes well on previous years data to pick a fantasy NASCAR driver team for the 2018 Daytona 500. Below is the list of fantasy drivers picked with machine learning. The number on the left is the standings position form last year (-1) and the number to the right is the predicted position. Don’t get confused that there is no 1st, 2nd or 3rd prediction – the machine learning algorithm ranks the driver first to worst.

name predict
5 DennyHamlin 8.575135
15 RyanNewman 10.580277
3 BradKeselowski 11.812835
7 KyleLarson 12.480553
16 JoeyLogano 13.360007
13 KurtBusch 13.673098
4 ChaseElliott 15.269643
2 KevinHarvick 15.797303
28 AricAlmirola 15.877207
0 MartinTruexJr. 15.919473
1 KyleBusch 16.387119
9 JimmieJohnson 17.436327
11 JamieMcMurray 17.518634
17 ClintBowyer 18.438231
18 ErikJones 19.125491
19 DanielSuarez 19.581856
8 RyanBlaney 19.799986
21 TrevorBayne 19.858866

One would think it would be easy, just pick the top drivers and enter them. We wish it was that easy! The trick is lineups have to consist of 6 drivers. Each driver listed has an assigned salary and a valid lineup must not exceed the salary cap of $50,000.

So we had to select the strongest drivers with reasonable salaries that get us 6 drivers for $50,000 salary cap. We also want to avoid picking a couple high dollar drivers and then cheap drivers to get to 6 drivers. Here are the salaries for the top 20 drivers.

Name Salary
Brad Keselowski 10400
Chase Elliott 10200
Kyle Busch 10000
Kevin Harvick 9900
Denny Hamlin 9800
Joey Logano 9600
Martin Truex Jr 9500
Kyle Larson 9300
Jimmie Johnson 9100
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 8900
Kurt Busch 8700
Ryan Blaney 8600
Erik Jones 8400
Clint Bowyer 8200
Jamie McMurray 8000
Austin Dillon 7900
Aric Almirola 7700
Alex Bowman 7500
William Byron 7300

We have entered the below fantasy NASCAR 2018 Daytona 500 lineup on DraftKings.com Daytona 500 fantasy competition. It cost us $3 for this contest.

2018 daytona 500 fantasy predictions with machine learning

The contest we entered is a 118906-player contest and features $300,000.00 in total prizes and pays out the top 28400 finishing positions. First place wins $25,000.00.

Scoring General

Place Differential

+/- 1 Pt

Fastest Laps

+0.5 Pts

Laps Led

+0.25 Pts

Here is the DraftKings.com fantasy Nascar rankings 2018 Daytona 500 It is interesting to compare the computer picks with the salaries on DraftKings.

Here is a link to the Vegas odds to see how the machine learning fantasy 2018 Daytona 500 picks stack up with the Vegas odds for the 2018 Daytona 500.

We hope you enjoy this post! Please leave a comment if you find it interesting.

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